An important measure of US consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months in October as the country continues to fight the Delta variant of the virus that causes Covid-19.

The Conference Committee reported that its consumer confidence index climbed from 109.8 in September to 113.8.

Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Committee, said in a press release: “As concerns about the spread of delta variants eased, consumer confidence improved in October, reversing the three-month downward trend.” “Although in the short term Inflation concerns have risen to 13-year highs, but have little effect on confidence. The proportion of consumers planning to buy houses, cars and major home appliances increased in October, indicating that consumer spending will continue to support the last few months of 2021 Economic Growth."

Nearly half of the respondents in the survey indicated that they intend to take a vacation in the next six months-this reflects the continued recovery of consumers' willingness to spend on travel and personal services.

At the same time, different interpretations of consumer sentiment were slightly lower in October. The University of Michigan reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 71.7 from 72.8 in September.

Richard Curtin, the chief economist of the university’s consumer survey, said in a press release: “The positive impact of higher income expectations and fading coronavirus has been overcome by higher inflation rates and government economic policies. This is offset by the decline in confidence.” “Not only did consumers expect the highest previous year’s inflation rate since 2008 in the October survey, but consumers also said that the previous year’s inflation rate was greater than at any time in the past 40 years. Uncertainty."

Curtin added that this is the first significant spike in inflation uncertainty recorded outside the recession.

The US Department of Commerce reported that consumer spending rose by 0.6% in September, but only increased by 0.3% after adjusting for inflation. Inflation rates remain high due to commodity shortages caused by continuous supply chain disruptions.

"The economy has a supply problem, not a demand problem," Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWD Bonds in New York, told Reuters. "The economy has money to burn, which is why inflation is so difficult to fight."

Inflation continues to rise. The personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, climbed at an annual rate of 4.4% in September. Even excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the index still rose 3.6%.

After the meeting in early November, the Federal Reserve decided to gradually reduce bond purchases in the next few months, but chose not to raise interest rates. "We don't think it is time to raise interest rates," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said after the meeting. "To achieve maximum employment, there is still a lot of leeway."

The Conference Committee reported that its leading economic index rose 0.2% to 117.5 in September after rising 0.8% and 0.9% in August and July, respectively. The index attempts to predict future economic activity.

“The US LEI rose again in September, but the speed has slowed down. This shows that the economy is still on a more moderate growth track compared with the first half of the year,” Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Committee, said in a press release. "Delta variables, rising inflation concerns, and supply chain disruptions have all brought headwinds to the U.S. economy. Although LEI growth has slowed in recent months, the advantages between the various components are still pervasive. In fact, the Conference Committee continues to predict the future. Strong growth: 5.7% year-on-year growth in 2021 and 3.8% year-on-year growth in 2022."

The mood of small businesses nationwide weakened slightly in September. The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that its small business optimism index fell by 1 percentage point to 99.1.

NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a press release: “Small business owners are doing their best to meet customer needs, but are unable to hire workers or obtain needed supplies and inventory. "The outlook for economic policy is not encouraging for homeowners, as legislators have turned to discuss tax increases and additional regulation."

51% of member business owners told NFIB that they have vacancies that they cannot fill. This is the third consecutive month that it has set a new 48-year high. A net 42% of homeowners reported a salary increase in September, an increase of 1% from August, the highest level in 48 years.

The confidence of home builders across the country rose in October. The National Association of Home Builders reported that its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose 4 points to 80 due to strong consumer demand.

NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said in a press release: "Despite still strong demand and home sales, builders are still struggling to cope with ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, which are delaying completion. And put upward pressure on building materials and housing prices."

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz added: “Builders are increasingly concerned about the affordability barriers faced by most buyers. Rising building material prices and bottlenecks continue to exist, as the Federal Reserve begins to reduce its debt to US Treasuries. With mortgage-backed bond purchases, interest rates are expected to rise in the next few months. Policy makers must focus on repairing broken supply chains. This will stimulate more construction and help ease the upward pressure on housing prices."

All three major HMI indexes rose in October. The index that measures current sales conditions rose by 5 points to 87; the part that measures sales expectations in the next six months increased by three points to 84; and the index for mapping the flow of potential buyers rose by 4 points to 65.

Any number above 50 indicates that more builders think the conditions are good rather than bad.

The US Department of Commerce reported that new home sales rose sharply in September. They have grown by 14%, with a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 800,000. This is the highest level since March.

The resale volume of houses is also high. The National Retail Association of the United States reported that existing home sales increased by 7.0% in September, a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 6.29 million units.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun (Lawrence Yun) said in a press release: "Supply has improved in the first few months, driving sales in September." "Demand for housing remains strong because buyers may want Acquire a home before mortgage rates rise further next year."

The median price of existing homes is US$352,800, an increase of 13.3% from September last year. Prices are rising in every part of the country. This marked 115 consecutive months of year-on-year growth.

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